Pandemic: economic impact and economic forecast
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.29059/rdycsv.v4i1.150Keywords:
Production, Consumption, Pandemic, Covid-19Abstract
The global pandemic declared by the SARS-CoV-2 virus in 2020 caused a sharp fall in output production and changed consumption habits of the population. The goal of the article is to identify the impact of the pandemic on production and consumption in Mexico and the northern border, as well as to forecast its economic recovery. With national data, the percentage change of economic activities and household spending between 2018 and 2021 were compared and an ARIMA model was estimated to forecast economic activity at the state level. The results indicate that the pandemic caused increases in trade retail, health services, transportation and entertainment, while consumers prioritized the purchase of basic products and online shopping. The impact of the pandemic in Mexico was deep but brief, so a rapid economic recovery is forecasted up to 2025, except for the border states of Coahuila and Tamaulipas.
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